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Asian Development Outlook (ADO) December 2024: Steady Growth Amid a Shifting Global Policy Landscape
Developing Asia’s growth remains steady, but policies under the incoming Trump administration in the United States (US) may impact the region. Changes to US trade, fiscal, and immigration policies could dent growth and boost inflation in developing Asia. Because these significant policy changes are expected to take time and be rolled out gradually, the effects on the region would mostly materialize beyond this Asian Development Outlook’s (ADO) 2024-2025 forecast horizon.
The short-term impact of the recent US election on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is expected to be muted. Growth in the PRC in 2025 could benefit from frontloading of US imports but there may also be lower investment in anticipation of the negative effects of US tariffs. Limited adverse impacts of the US tariffs on the PRC are expected to be felt only beyond the forecast horizon. Growth forecasts for the PRC are maintained at 4.8% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025. The Special Topic in this ADO details the potential economic effects of the new US administration on Asia and the Pacific.
The growth forecast for developing Asia is trimmed to 4.9% for 2024 and 4.8% for 2025. The downward revisions to East Asia and South Asia offset the stronger growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia and Southeast Asia, shaving 0.1 percentage points from growth in the region. For 2025, slower growth is expected in South Asia due to weaker domestic demand prospects.
Developing Asia’s inflation forecasts are adjusted down to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, mainly due to softening global commodity prices.
Risks have evolved and remain tilted to the downside. Larger and more rapid US policy shifts than assumed in the baseline could worsen the outlook, as could greater geopolitical tensions or property market fragility in the PRC.
The short-term impact of the recent US election on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is expected to be muted. Growth in the PRC in 2025 could benefit from frontloading of US imports but there may also be lower investment in anticipation of the negative effects of US tariffs. Limited adverse impacts of the US tariffs on the PRC are expected to be felt only beyond the forecast horizon. Growth forecasts for the PRC are maintained at 4.8% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025. The Special Topic in this ADO details the potential economic effects of the new US administration on Asia and the Pacific.
The growth forecast for developing Asia is trimmed to 4.9% for 2024 and 4.8% for 2025. The downward revisions to East Asia and South Asia offset the stronger growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia and Southeast Asia, shaving 0.1 percentage points from growth in the region. For 2025, slower growth is expected in South Asia due to weaker domestic demand prospects.
Developing Asia’s inflation forecasts are adjusted down to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, mainly due to softening global commodity prices.
Risks have evolved and remain tilted to the downside. Larger and more rapid US policy shifts than assumed in the baseline could worsen the outlook, as could greater geopolitical tensions or property market fragility in the PRC.
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