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Trade in goods and services outlook in Asia and the Pacific 2024/2025
UNESCAP
2025.01.03
Merchandise trade expanded in 2024, driven by a broader recovery in global economic activity. Globally, real exports and imports grew by 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively. Asia and the Pacific outperformed global averages, with exports increasing by 3.4% and imports by 3.6%. Notably, global trade grew by 1.6% for exports and 2.9% for imports in nominal terms, while the Asia-Pacific region registered an increase of 2.2% and 4.1%, respectively.

In 2024, the Asia-Pacific region‘s merchandise trade surplus decreased to 2.3% of total merchandise trade, down from 3.2% in 2023. This reduction occurred despite continued export growth as import value increased at a faster rate. Strong growth in import demand was due to regional economic recovery, boosted consumer spending and investment while export growth was slower owing to moderate global economic expansion.

Intra-regional trade remains significant, accounting for nearly 60% of the region‘s total exports in 2024. Ongoing trade reconfiguration is evident, with notable shifts between 2019 and 2024. ENEA economies have strengthened trade ties with Asia-Pacific partners outside its subregion, while slightly reducing exports to the United States. Meanwhile, sanctions and supply chain adjustments have driven NCA economies to redirect exports from the EU towards SSWA and ENEA, signaling a significant realignment in NCA‘s trade patterns towards Asia.

However, trade growth faces significant uncertainties, including slower-than-expected recovery in major economies and potential trade wars. These challenges could dampen the growth prospects compared to 2024 levels, with developing Asia-Pacific merchandise exports particularly at risk.