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A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Impact of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility
I examine the effects both on individual EU member states as well as the European Union as a whole, given the presence of potential spillovers between EU countries. I consider three key channels through which the RRF can impact the macroeconomy: the risk premium channel, the public investment channel, and the structural reforms channel. I find that the announcement of a recovery fund led to a sizeable reduction in spreads for many EU countries, increasing their fiscal headroom, though having only a negligible effect on GDP. I find that the increased public investment resulting from the RRF raises demand in the short run and supply in the long run with an implied multiplier of a little over two. Finally, although I cannot explicitly quantify the impacts of the planned structural reforms, I use NiGEM to consider the macroeconomic channels through which a subset of these reforms have effects on GDP and productivity in both the reforming Member States and the European Union as a whole.
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