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The Recent Surge in Immigration and Its Impact on Measured Productivity Growth
Labor productivity―real nonfarm business output divided by total hours worked―is a critical measure of economic health, and since 2023, it has been increasing at a brisk pace. Some observers, however, worry that mismeasurement in the denominator, particularly as a result of an undercount in recent immigration, might paint a rosier picture than reality.
In a recent blog post, I explored how the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS), a key source for understanding U.S. labor market trends, significantly undercounted recent immigrants compared with estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Between January 2022 and October 2024, the CPS reported a net increase of 3.94 million immigrants, while the CBO, using additional data sources, estimated that the true number was more than double, totaling 8.65 million during that same period.1 Despite this undercount, the blog post showed that the impact of this discrepancy on the aggregate unemployment rate is very modest.
In a recent blog post, I explored how the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS), a key source for understanding U.S. labor market trends, significantly undercounted recent immigrants compared with estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Between January 2022 and October 2024, the CPS reported a net increase of 3.94 million immigrants, while the CBO, using additional data sources, estimated that the true number was more than double, totaling 8.65 million during that same period.1 Despite this undercount, the blog post showed that the impact of this discrepancy on the aggregate unemployment rate is very modest.
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