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Core Inflation Eases
NIESR
2025.01.17
Today’s ONS numbers indicate that annual inflation slightly fell to 2.5 per cent in December, from 2.6 per cent in November. We forecast headline inflation to rise in January 2025 due to base effects from last year dropping out, before slowing again.
Services inflation has fallen to 4.4 per cent in December, from 5.0 per cent in November. This has slowed core inflation to 3.2 per cent.
Our underlying inflation measure (which excludes 5 per cent of the highest and lowest price changes to eliminate volatility) fell to 1.3 per cent. This low figure indicates that the headline rate is being driven by large price increases in a few sectors, with inflation rates broadly falling for most items.
Moving forward, inflationary pressures stemming from the new budget, and global uncertainty surrounding the Trump presidency will likely keep interest rates higher for longer than previously anticipated.