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Modelling Northern Ireland Within the Context of the All-Island Economy
Throughout this time, macroeconomic models have proven to be critical in helping to understand the structure and dynamics of the Irish economy. The process of estimating models has prompted deep reflection on the mechanisms and relationships at work in the economy. The models have been used to estimate the effects of some of the most significant external shocks to the economy including the COVID pandemic, the introduction of the euro and the Great Financial Crash of 2008-2010.
When the Brexit referendum was announced in the UK, economists in Ireland drew heavily on the ESRI’s macroeconomic model to provide quantifications of the possible impacts on Ireland. While it was clear that the different possible forms of Brexit would have economic impacts in Northern Ireland, the absence of a macroeconomic model meant it was difficult to get comprehensive estimates of these impacts. This prompted an interest in the ESRI in developing a model for Northern Ireland, but we saw that the need went well beyond Brexit. Many of the challenges which face the Northern Ireland economy in areas such as productivity, education and investment need to be seen and understood in an integrated way. The development of a macroeconomic model offered a fruitful route to enhancing this understanding.
Ibec approached the ESRI in 2021 about the possibility of undertaking work on the economy of Northern Ireland. Based on the thinking outlined above, Ibec and the ESRI agreed that there would be great value in developing a macroeconomic model for Northern Ireland which in turn would be linked to macro-models of Ireland and the UK. Having agreed the overall direction of the proposed project, we approached the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) in London about working with us. In addition to the long-running connection between the ESRI and NIESR, NIESR’s expertise in macro-modelling and their work on the other devolved nations of the UK made them the ideal partner for this project.
After three years of intensive work, the model has been developed and this report outlines its features and illustrates it possible uses. While this is an important milestone, we hope that the ongoing use of the model and the continual refinement of its structure will contribute to policy analysis and debate in the future.
When the Brexit referendum was announced in the UK, economists in Ireland drew heavily on the ESRI’s macroeconomic model to provide quantifications of the possible impacts on Ireland. While it was clear that the different possible forms of Brexit would have economic impacts in Northern Ireland, the absence of a macroeconomic model meant it was difficult to get comprehensive estimates of these impacts. This prompted an interest in the ESRI in developing a model for Northern Ireland, but we saw that the need went well beyond Brexit. Many of the challenges which face the Northern Ireland economy in areas such as productivity, education and investment need to be seen and understood in an integrated way. The development of a macroeconomic model offered a fruitful route to enhancing this understanding.
Ibec approached the ESRI in 2021 about the possibility of undertaking work on the economy of Northern Ireland. Based on the thinking outlined above, Ibec and the ESRI agreed that there would be great value in developing a macroeconomic model for Northern Ireland which in turn would be linked to macro-models of Ireland and the UK. Having agreed the overall direction of the proposed project, we approached the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) in London about working with us. In addition to the long-running connection between the ESRI and NIESR, NIESR’s expertise in macro-modelling and their work on the other devolved nations of the UK made them the ideal partner for this project.
After three years of intensive work, the model has been developed and this report outlines its features and illustrates it possible uses. While this is an important milestone, we hope that the ongoing use of the model and the continual refinement of its structure will contribute to policy analysis and debate in the future.
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