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Navigating the UK‘s Shifting Economic Landscape
NIESR
2025.01.20
Monthly GDP rose by 0.1 per cent in November, following a fall of 0.1 per cent in October. This continued weakness into the fourth quarter marks a continued slowdown in output growth compared to the robust performance in the first half of last year. In addition, GDP is projected to have recorded no growth on a three-month-on-three-month basis in November.
Although not a significant downward revision, the downgrading of Q3‘s growth from 0.1 per cent to 0 per cent highlights growing concerns about the economy‘s outlook amid falling business and consumer confidence.
That said, we project growth to stagnate in the fourth quarter of 2024, with flatlining growth in the Services and Production sectors and a slight fall in the Construction sector. An early estimate for the first quarter of 2025 projects growth of 0.3 per cent. This is consistent with signals from the purchasing managers’ index and recent business and confidence surveys.
Recent financial market volatility has further dampened the economy‘s growth outlook, casting concerns over fiscal sustainability. However, the increase in government borrowing costs reflects deeper structural issues - including weak productivity growth alongside low levels of investment in the public and private sectors - which have left the economy more vulnerable to external headwinds.