본문 내용으로 건더뛰기

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

ENG
  • 경제배움
  • Economic

    Information

    and Education

    Center

최신자료
World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain
IMF
2025.01.20
Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, below the historical (2000?19) average of 3.7 percent. The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), primarily on account of an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions in other major economies. Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.5 percent in 2026, converging back to target earlier in advanced economies than in emerging market and developing economies.

Medium-term risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside, while the near-term outlook is characterized by divergent risks. Upside risks could lift already-robust growth in the United States in the short run, whereas risks in other countries are on the downside amid elevated policy uncertainty. Policy-generated disruptions to the ongoing disinflation process could interrupt the pivot to easing monetary policy, with implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability. Managing these risks requires a keen policy focus on balancing trade-offs between inflation and real activity, rebuilding buffers, and lifting medium-term growth prospects through stepped-up structural reforms as well as stronger multilateral rules and cooperation.