The U.S. labor market’s tightness has diminished from its peak in March 2022, when the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers hit a historic high of 2.0. Since that time, job openings and hiring have fallen, plus fewer people have been quitting their jobs. As a result, this ratio has returned to levels before the COVID-19 pandemic, both nationally and in the states that make up the Eighth Federal Reserve District.
One potential outcome of a labor market with more “slack” is an erosion in employment opportunities, especially for those with the least education and work experience. Teenagers (ages 16 to 19) fit this profile. Community Development research from the St. Louis Fed shows that employment outcomes for workers with less education and experience are more sensitive to changes in job openings: A 1 percentage point decline in an area’s job openings has a more adverse impact on their employment prospects than it does for other groups.
This blog post shows teenage employment as a share of the civilian population (their employment-to-population ratio) has trended downward since the labor market’s March 2022 peak.