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Housing Finance Watch (Week 3, 2025)
The median purchase rate held steady at 6.875% in week 3, 2025.
According to Mortgage News Daily, the avg. 30-year rate was 7.08% on Jan. 22nd.
Purchase volume was down 19% from the same weeks in 2019, and up 7% YoY, with volume growth slowing with increasing rates.
Preliminary YoY HPA was 4.6% in December 2024. It is projected to be 3.5% and 2.2% for Jan. 2025 and the first three weeks of Feb. 2025, respectively.
Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively high rates, YoY HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being well-qualified.
Our base HPA projection calls for YoY HPA of +4.7% and +4.5% by year-end 2024 and 2025, respectively.
As interest rates have moved sharply higher since mid-2022, no cash-out volume has disappeared almost entirely.
Cash-out volume has also contracted sharply due to higher rates, but has hovered between 30,000 to 48,000 loans since November 2022. This is down over 80% from a peak of 250,000 loans in October 2021.
For the mortgage industry, the purchase market continued its post-summer decline in October, following the summer peak in May. Total agency loan volume in October 2024 (refi and purchase loans combined) was 320,000, up 8.8% from 294,000 in September 2024 and up 32.4% YoY. Based on our analysis of Optimal Blue data, this is a continuation of the typical seasonal purchase loan trend.
According to Mortgage News Daily, the avg. 30-year rate was 7.08% on Jan. 22nd.
Purchase volume was down 19% from the same weeks in 2019, and up 7% YoY, with volume growth slowing with increasing rates.
Preliminary YoY HPA was 4.6% in December 2024. It is projected to be 3.5% and 2.2% for Jan. 2025 and the first three weeks of Feb. 2025, respectively.
Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively high rates, YoY HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being well-qualified.
Our base HPA projection calls for YoY HPA of +4.7% and +4.5% by year-end 2024 and 2025, respectively.
As interest rates have moved sharply higher since mid-2022, no cash-out volume has disappeared almost entirely.
Cash-out volume has also contracted sharply due to higher rates, but has hovered between 30,000 to 48,000 loans since November 2022. This is down over 80% from a peak of 250,000 loans in October 2021.
For the mortgage industry, the purchase market continued its post-summer decline in October, following the summer peak in May. Total agency loan volume in October 2024 (refi and purchase loans combined) was 320,000, up 8.8% from 294,000 in September 2024 and up 32.4% YoY. Based on our analysis of Optimal Blue data, this is a continuation of the typical seasonal purchase loan trend.
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