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National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index―December 2024
The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. For example, the Case Shiller home price index, which will come out later this month, will be an average of September, October, and November 2024, thus effectively reflecting October’s HPA. The AEI Housing Center’s January release is for December, two full months later. Additionally, we use Optimal Blue rate lock data to project January and February 2025’s home price appreciation.
National YoY HPA for December 2024 was 4.6%, same as a month ago, but down from 5.7% & 6.0% in Dec. 2023 & Dec. 2019 respectively.
Historically, HPA in the low price tier has outpaced HPA in the upper price tiers.
Compared to a year ago, the rate of YoY HPA dropped for every tier.
YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from 6.4% in Cape Coral (-9.3% inflation-adjusted) to +11.6% (8.7% inflation-adjusted) in Louisville. Austin has the largest HPA drop since its peak in April 2022, with a cumulative decline of 13.6% (up 3.6% YoY in December).
Among the 60 largest metros, year-over-year home price appreciation has a strong inverse relationship with the months’ remaining supply.
In line with seasonal trends (2017-2019), November 2024 housing inventory tapered down from October 2024, dropping by 1.9% month-over-month (MoM). However, it was up 21.4% from November 2023.
Compared to Nov. 2024, months’ remaining supply in Dec. 2024 dropped across all price tiers (except low).
57 of the 60 largest metros experienced a seller’s market (months’ supply < 7 mo.) of varying intensities in December 2024. There were three exceptions, all in Florida (Cape Coral, Miami, and North Port), and all three experienced negative YoY HPA.
National YoY HPA for December 2024 was 4.6%, same as a month ago, but down from 5.7% & 6.0% in Dec. 2023 & Dec. 2019 respectively.
Historically, HPA in the low price tier has outpaced HPA in the upper price tiers.
Compared to a year ago, the rate of YoY HPA dropped for every tier.
YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from 6.4% in Cape Coral (-9.3% inflation-adjusted) to +11.6% (8.7% inflation-adjusted) in Louisville. Austin has the largest HPA drop since its peak in April 2022, with a cumulative decline of 13.6% (up 3.6% YoY in December).
Among the 60 largest metros, year-over-year home price appreciation has a strong inverse relationship with the months’ remaining supply.
In line with seasonal trends (2017-2019), November 2024 housing inventory tapered down from October 2024, dropping by 1.9% month-over-month (MoM). However, it was up 21.4% from November 2023.
Compared to Nov. 2024, months’ remaining supply in Dec. 2024 dropped across all price tiers (except low).
57 of the 60 largest metros experienced a seller’s market (months’ supply < 7 mo.) of varying intensities in December 2024. There were three exceptions, all in Florida (Cape Coral, Miami, and North Port), and all three experienced negative YoY HPA.
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