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Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends
- Average US student assessment scores appear to tell a simple story: Performance rose through the 2000s, plateaued during the 2010s, and then declined sharply during the pandemic. But looking beyond the averages reveals more complex and concerning patterns.
- Student achievement began declining around 2013, but these declines―both before and after the pandemic―were overwhelmingly driven by the bottom half of test takers. Since 2011, the US has experienced the highest absolute achievement gap growth internationally.
- Adult performance trends on international assessments during this period reflect those of students, suggesting that external societal factors―not just school-related influences―are at play.
- Determining the drivers of student achievement trends is not simple. Most conventional explanations for student performance trends struggle to fully account for the patterns identified in this report.
- Student achievement began declining around 2013, but these declines―both before and after the pandemic―were overwhelmingly driven by the bottom half of test takers. Since 2011, the US has experienced the highest absolute achievement gap growth internationally.
- Adult performance trends on international assessments during this period reflect those of students, suggesting that external societal factors―not just school-related influences―are at play.
- Determining the drivers of student achievement trends is not simple. Most conventional explanations for student performance trends struggle to fully account for the patterns identified in this report.
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