최신자료
Estimating Euro Area Output Gap Dynamics: Evidence from the updated Area-Wide Model Database
We estimate the output gap for the euro area and 20 member countries using a variety of statistical models. We first update the Area-Wide Model Database (AWMD) to 2024Q3 and will keep a regularly updated version publicly available. Using more than 50 years of data, we show that (1) statistical estimates agree on peaks and troughs, but even though estimates are correlated, there is uncertainty about the state of the cycle due to differences in estimates in the trend output, (2) statistical and institutional estimates comove but provide disparate gauges of the output gaps, and (3) output gaps of the five largest members are highly correlated with each other and with the euro area aggregate.
많이 본 자료
![[팀튜링의 디지털 오디세이] 제1화 UAM의 미래](/userdata/main/incContent/sideLink/19/aaaGHKBjsPPI5g31szc-y20240605110816byhta.png)
![[2024.04] 물가상승](/userdata/main/incContent/sideLink/20/aaaGHKBjsPPI5g31szc-y20240605111046bpogp.jpg)
