국제무역
Sustaining Growth in an Uncertain World
Global economic growth is expected to continue to run just ahead of 3 per cent a year with easier financial conditions due to falling policy interest rates, offset by rising policy uncertainties and constrained fiscal positions in major advanced economies.
Growth in advanced economies has been driven by the United States, while the Euro Area has underperformed. We forecast that GDP growth in the United States will slow but that in the Euro Area will become stronger as we move through 2025. India and China continue to lead growth in emerging markets, although the medium-term growth prospects for China are expected to be much weaker than a decade ago.
Headline inflation rates have fallen towards targets in most advanced economies, but underlying inflation rates have shown more stickiness. We forecast that OECD annual inflation (excluding Turkey) will continue falling this year, from 3.1 per cent in 2024 to 2.3 per cent in 2025. However, with underlying inflation forecast to remain above target in the United States, fewer reductions in policy interest rates are forecast in 2025 than in our Autumn Outlook.
The growth of government debt during the pandemic and the recovery phase is now, with higher interest rates, creating difficulties for governments in advanced economies. Governments are facing prospects of higher taxes and/or lower spending but the position in the United States is less clear following the recent election.
The result of the US election means that trying to forecast what will happen to the global economy has become even more difficult than usual. The uncertainty around what President Trump will do, and the effects of any of these actions on the United States and the rest of the world, is much greater than usual. However, we continue to think the global economy grew by 3.2 per cent in 2024 and will grow at the same speed in 2025. It is our view that global growth of around 3 per cent per annum is the new normal; it is highly unlikely to return to the stronger rates seen since the start of the new era of globalisation.
Growth in advanced economies has been driven by the United States, while the Euro Area has underperformed. We forecast that GDP growth in the United States will slow but that in the Euro Area will become stronger as we move through 2025. India and China continue to lead growth in emerging markets, although the medium-term growth prospects for China are expected to be much weaker than a decade ago.
Headline inflation rates have fallen towards targets in most advanced economies, but underlying inflation rates have shown more stickiness. We forecast that OECD annual inflation (excluding Turkey) will continue falling this year, from 3.1 per cent in 2024 to 2.3 per cent in 2025. However, with underlying inflation forecast to remain above target in the United States, fewer reductions in policy interest rates are forecast in 2025 than in our Autumn Outlook.
The growth of government debt during the pandemic and the recovery phase is now, with higher interest rates, creating difficulties for governments in advanced economies. Governments are facing prospects of higher taxes and/or lower spending but the position in the United States is less clear following the recent election.
The result of the US election means that trying to forecast what will happen to the global economy has become even more difficult than usual. The uncertainty around what President Trump will do, and the effects of any of these actions on the United States and the rest of the world, is much greater than usual. However, we continue to think the global economy grew by 3.2 per cent in 2024 and will grow at the same speed in 2025. It is our view that global growth of around 3 per cent per annum is the new normal; it is highly unlikely to return to the stronger rates seen since the start of the new era of globalisation.
많이 본 자료
![[팀튜링의 디지털 오디세이] 제1화 UAM의 미래](/userdata/main/incContent/sideLink/19/aaaGHKBjsPPI5g31szc-y20240605110816byhta.png)
![[2024.04] 물가상승](/userdata/main/incContent/sideLink/20/aaaGHKBjsPPI5g31szc-y20240605111046bpogp.jpg)
