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China’s retaliatory tariffs will hurt Trump-voting counties most
Most of the discussion around President Donald Trump’s volley of tariff threats this week has centered on their potential impact on consumer prices and inflation. While price increases are a real concern, another impact involves the fact that regional economies (and the local jobs there) are frequently caught in the middle of trade disputes, though not equally.
For now, the most significant disruptions to U.S. communities are on pause, given the last-minute suspension of Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. However, with Trump standing by his threat to impose 10% tariffs on imports from China, and China sticking with its threat of counter-tariffs commencing on Monday, the nation may well be heading toward a new reminder of the unfortunate ways local communities can suffer collateral damage from international faceoffs.
While the China clash will play out globally and strategically, its potential impacts will be localized and varied, since different regions have different local industry mixes and structures. Which is why it’s worth looking at the local geography of the pending trade war as an example of how national policy can hurt communities and their economies.
To explore how this works, this analysis builds on previous Brookings Metro work from 2018 by assessing which places have the most jobs in industries targeted by China’s proposed retaliatory tariffs. While this piece focuses specifically on Chinese retaliation, it also provides a template for assessing the place-specific economic side effects associated with any future trade tensions, such as if Mexico and Canada reimplement their retaliatory tariffs.
For now, the most significant disruptions to U.S. communities are on pause, given the last-minute suspension of Trump’s proposed tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. However, with Trump standing by his threat to impose 10% tariffs on imports from China, and China sticking with its threat of counter-tariffs commencing on Monday, the nation may well be heading toward a new reminder of the unfortunate ways local communities can suffer collateral damage from international faceoffs.
While the China clash will play out globally and strategically, its potential impacts will be localized and varied, since different regions have different local industry mixes and structures. Which is why it’s worth looking at the local geography of the pending trade war as an example of how national policy can hurt communities and their economies.
To explore how this works, this analysis builds on previous Brookings Metro work from 2018 by assessing which places have the most jobs in industries targeted by China’s proposed retaliatory tariffs. While this piece focuses specifically on Chinese retaliation, it also provides a template for assessing the place-specific economic side effects associated with any future trade tensions, such as if Mexico and Canada reimplement their retaliatory tariffs.
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