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US Government Spending and Job Cuts: Muted Effects on the Wider Economy
President Trump has instituted a far-reaching revamp of US Federal Government spending. This briefing explores some of the broader implications for the US jobs market and economy.
Federal employment, excluding the armed forces, is small, under 2 per cent of total employment. This is low by international standards and therefore even substantial cuts will have only a limited macroeconomic effect over the next year. However, since a considerable share is related to current or past national security, substantial cuts will require drastic and headline-grabbing cuts in other agencies.
A sharp reduction in force over the next couple of months could result in a fall in aggregate payrolls, denting consumer confidence and disturbing markets. The expulsion of undocumented immigrants will not help much with this absorption into the private sector since the skillsets of undocumented migrants are different from those currently in federal employment.
Achieving trillion-dollar savings will be difficult without involving major social transfer programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Politically, these will be significantly more challenging issues to tackle than USAID and the Department of Education.
Federal employment, excluding the armed forces, is small, under 2 per cent of total employment. This is low by international standards and therefore even substantial cuts will have only a limited macroeconomic effect over the next year. However, since a considerable share is related to current or past national security, substantial cuts will require drastic and headline-grabbing cuts in other agencies.
A sharp reduction in force over the next couple of months could result in a fall in aggregate payrolls, denting consumer confidence and disturbing markets. The expulsion of undocumented immigrants will not help much with this absorption into the private sector since the skillsets of undocumented migrants are different from those currently in federal employment.
Achieving trillion-dollar savings will be difficult without involving major social transfer programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Politically, these will be significantly more challenging issues to tackle than USAID and the Department of Education.
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