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Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations
We investigate how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and regional Federal Reserve presidents influence private sector expectations. Speeches highlighting upcoming inflationary pressures lead both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, suggesting the presence of Delphic effects. While professional forecasters adjust their expectations in response to Odyssean communications---i.e., statements about the central bank‘s reaction to the announced inflationary pressures---households do not, leaving Delphic effects dominant. A novel general equilibrium model, in which agents differ in their ability to interpret Odyssean signals, accounts for these differential patterns.
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