Growth in regular average weekly earnings remains strong at 5.9 per cent in the three months to January 2025, and 5.8 per cent if we include bonuses.
We forecast regular pay growth to moderately slow but remain elevated at 5.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.
With inflation falling, annual growth in real regular pay remains strong at 2.1 per cent, meaning workers will see a continued recovery in their standard of living.
Unemployment slightly rose on the quarter to 4.4 per cent and is forecasted to moderately rise in the coming months.
As vacancies continue to fall, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has reached pre-pandemic levels, which is expected to lead to a reduction in wage pressures.
Service sector wages growth continues to be persistent at 5.9 per cent, adding pressure to underlying inflation.