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Agents‘ summary of business conditions - 2025 Q1
This publication summarises intelligence from the Bank’s Agents considered by the Monetary Policy Committee at its March meeting. The intelligence was gathered in the six weeks to end-February. The Agents’ scores published alongside this document generally represent developments over the past three months compared with the same period a year earlier.In the main, reported economic activity remains as subdued as it was in the last round. On the expenditure side, consumer demand remains weak. Contacts continue to expect a modest strengthening of consumption growth over 2025, but the timing and extent of this is contingent on an improvement in sentiment. Continuing the trend seen over recent rounds, contacts are scaling back investment plans for the year ahead. Annual services export values growth is stable, but goods export volumes have fallen even more compared to a year ago. Expectations for 2025 H1 export growth are modest, and the risks associated with tariffs are a key concern for goods trade.On the output side, manufacturing output continues to fall on a year ago, the rate of decline in construction output continues to ease, and business services output showed modest growth. As at the last update, spare capacity remains, especially in manufacturing, and is more evident in physical capacity than in labour. Overall, contacts still expect some recovery in output growth in 2025, but demand uncertainty and price sensitivity pose downside risks.On balance, employment intentions have turned negative since the last round, with more firms reporting that they are pausing or freezing hiring and saying they may look to shed jobs if the outlook does not improve. Recruitment difficulties have broadly normalised. There is little news since the previous round on pay settlements: recent company visits continue to suggest average pay rises of 3.5% to 4%, consistent with the Agents’ annual pay survey at the start of the year (3.7%).Higher labour costs are contributing to increasing consumer goods inflation and may lead to the moderation in consumer services inflation slowing. Overall, the inflation outlook suggested by Agents’ intelligence is broadly consistent with the near-term uptick and subsequent moderation of inflation set out in the February Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
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