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Pay Growth Remains Strong at 5.6 per cent
- Growth in regular average weekly earnings remains strong at 5.9 per cent in the three months to February 2025, and 5.6 per cent if we include bonuses.
- We forecast regular pay growth to record 5.7 per cent in Q1 2025, with the rise in national minimum/living wage in April keeping wages elevated.
- With inflation falling, annual growth in real regular pay remains strong at 2.1 per cent, meaning workers will see a continued recovery in their standard of living.
- Unemployment remains stable at 4.4 per cent and is forecasted to slowly rise in the coming months.
- As vacancies continue to fall, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has reached pre-pandemic levels, which is expected to lead to a reduction in wage pressures.
- Service sector wages growth continues to be persistent at 5.6 per cent, adding pressure to underlying inflation.
- We forecast regular pay growth to record 5.7 per cent in Q1 2025, with the rise in national minimum/living wage in April keeping wages elevated.
- With inflation falling, annual growth in real regular pay remains strong at 2.1 per cent, meaning workers will see a continued recovery in their standard of living.
- Unemployment remains stable at 4.4 per cent and is forecasted to slowly rise in the coming months.
- As vacancies continue to fall, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has reached pre-pandemic levels, which is expected to lead to a reduction in wage pressures.
- Service sector wages growth continues to be persistent at 5.6 per cent, adding pressure to underlying inflation.
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