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Increased Government Spending and Persistent Wage Growth will Keep Inflation Elevated in 2025 - NIESR
Today’s ONS numbers indicate that annual inflation recorded 2.6 per cent in March 2025, from 2.8 per cent in February.
We forecast inflation to remain above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target in 2025 given increased public spending, persistent wage growth and global volatility.
Services inflation recorded 4.7 per cent in February driven by strong pay growth, keeping core inflation elevated at 3.4 per cent.
Our underlying inflation measure (which excludes 5 per cent of the highest and lowest price changes to eliminate volatility) recorded 1.5 per cent. This figure remaining low is a positive indication, suggesting that headline inflation figure is being driven by large price increases in a few sectors, with inflation rates broadly falling for most items.
Moving forward, the Bank of England will remain cautious with regards to further cuts. We expect one more rate cut of 25 basis points this year, with a further cut on knife edge.
We forecast inflation to remain above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target in 2025 given increased public spending, persistent wage growth and global volatility.
Services inflation recorded 4.7 per cent in February driven by strong pay growth, keeping core inflation elevated at 3.4 per cent.
Our underlying inflation measure (which excludes 5 per cent of the highest and lowest price changes to eliminate volatility) recorded 1.5 per cent. This figure remaining low is a positive indication, suggesting that headline inflation figure is being driven by large price increases in a few sectors, with inflation rates broadly falling for most items.
Moving forward, the Bank of England will remain cautious with regards to further cuts. We expect one more rate cut of 25 basis points this year, with a further cut on knife edge.
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