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National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index―March 2025
The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. For example, the Case Shiller home price index, which will come out later this month, will be an average of December 2024, January 2025, and February 2025, thus effectively reflecting January’s HPA. The AEI Housing Center’s April release is for March, two full months later. Additionally, we use ICE rate lock data to project April and May 2025’s home price appreciation.
National YoY HPA for March 2025 was 2.6%, down from 3.3% a month ago, 5.9% a year ago, & 4.6% in March 2019.
Historically, HPA in the low price tier has outpaced HPA in the upper price tiers.
Compared to a year ago, the rate of YoY HPA dropped for every price tier and especially for low tier.
YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from -7.0% in North Port (-9.4% inflation-adjusted) to +8.0% (5.6% inflation-adjusted) in Louisville. Austin has the largest HPA drop since its peak in April 2022, with a cumulative decline of 12.5% (down 3.3% YoY in March).
In line with seasonal trends (2017-2019), March 2025 housing inventory rose from February, increasing by 6.8% Month-over-Month (MoM). Listings were up 17.9% from Feb. 2024, and it is projected to rise further in April.
Compared to Feb. 2025, months’ remaining supply in March 2025 dropped across all price tiers.
54 of the 60 largest metros experienced a seller’s market (months’ supply < 7 mo.) of varying intensities in Marc 2025. The metros with over 7 months of supply were all located in the South and West: Cape Coral, Miami, and North Port, FL, as well as Myrtle Beach, SC, Colorado Springs, CO, and Phoenix, AZ.
National YoY HPA for March 2025 was 2.6%, down from 3.3% a month ago, 5.9% a year ago, & 4.6% in March 2019.
Historically, HPA in the low price tier has outpaced HPA in the upper price tiers.
Compared to a year ago, the rate of YoY HPA dropped for every price tier and especially for low tier.
YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from -7.0% in North Port (-9.4% inflation-adjusted) to +8.0% (5.6% inflation-adjusted) in Louisville. Austin has the largest HPA drop since its peak in April 2022, with a cumulative decline of 12.5% (down 3.3% YoY in March).
In line with seasonal trends (2017-2019), March 2025 housing inventory rose from February, increasing by 6.8% Month-over-Month (MoM). Listings were up 17.9% from Feb. 2024, and it is projected to rise further in April.
Compared to Feb. 2025, months’ remaining supply in March 2025 dropped across all price tiers.
54 of the 60 largest metros experienced a seller’s market (months’ supply < 7 mo.) of varying intensities in Marc 2025. The metros with over 7 months of supply were all located in the South and West: Cape Coral, Miami, and North Port, FL, as well as Myrtle Beach, SC, Colorado Springs, CO, and Phoenix, AZ.
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