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The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in US Labor Markets
America’s debate about trade deficits and tariffs has reached a fever pitch. On the one hand, the White House argues that US trade deficits are a sign of unfair competition by other countries and promises a manufacturing renaissance with well-paying jobs through aggressive tariff policies. On the other hand, critics claim that these tariffs will simply lead to higher prices. What’s often overlooked in this heated exchange is that tariffs affect not just manufacturing but also service-sector jobs―where most Americans work.
Our analysis is based on detailed administrative data on all US firms and their establishments from the Longitudinal Business Database of the US Census Bureau. This database allows us to provide a detailed account of how the local reallocation of jobs away from manufacturing to services occurred. Our findings show that firms shifted from manufacturing toward services by closing manufacturing plants and expanding employment in services (though not always in the same local labor market) or by switching their plants’ primary activity from manufacturing to the provision of trade-related services, such as management, research and development, and wholesale. Establishments switching from manufacturing to services accounted for 40 percent of the total negative effect of the China Shock on manufacturing employment from 1997 to 2007. This implies that what appears to be manufacturing job loss in more aggregated, public-use data can be attributed partly to jobs now counted as service-se
Our analysis is based on detailed administrative data on all US firms and their establishments from the Longitudinal Business Database of the US Census Bureau. This database allows us to provide a detailed account of how the local reallocation of jobs away from manufacturing to services occurred. Our findings show that firms shifted from manufacturing toward services by closing manufacturing plants and expanding employment in services (though not always in the same local labor market) or by switching their plants’ primary activity from manufacturing to the provision of trade-related services, such as management, research and development, and wholesale. Establishments switching from manufacturing to services accounted for 40 percent of the total negative effect of the China Shock on manufacturing employment from 1997 to 2007. This implies that what appears to be manufacturing job loss in more aggregated, public-use data can be attributed partly to jobs now counted as service-se
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