Understanding the drivers of homelessness is crucial for developing effective housing and social policies, but attributing changes in the size of the homeless population to specific causes is challenging. Recent trends have added urgency to this task: Between 2022 and 2024, the United States experienced an unprecedented 43 percent rise in sheltered homelessness, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, a stark reversal from the gradual decline since 2007. However, estimates of unsheltered homelessness rose by only 17 percent during these two years, a steady continuation of a gradual increase since 2015.