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The Spill-back and Spillover Effects of US Monetary Policy: Evidence on an International Cost Channel
We find that an unanticipated tightening of US monetary policy tends to raise US import prices. This empirical “spill-back” pattern differs from the predictions of typical open-economy macro models. We also document a new empirical ＂spillover＂ effect: import prices of other countries also rise following an unexpected US monetary tightening. To understand the mechanism, we examine Chinese exporters and identify a borrowing cost channel―their liquidity conditions generally deteriorate after a US monetary tightening. Indeed, the output price response is greater for those firms facing higher borrowing costs or tighter liquidity conditions.
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