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Response to the 2025 Comprehensive Spending Review - NIESR
Departmental spending is set to grow by 2.3 per cent in real terms each year over the spending period but some government departments, such as the Home Office and the Foreign Office, will see their budgets cut.
We welcome the increased investment in the National Health Service, defence, housing and transport infrastructure, particularly as it should help boost economic growth in some of the less prosperous regions of the United Kingdom such as the West Midlands, Wales and the North-East. But we think it is still not enough.
The ？113 billion increase in public investment over the parliament is a welcome commitment given historically low levels of UK government capital spending as a share of GDP. However, the headline figure is flattering as it is measured against the backdrop of the March 2024 plans, which pencilled in implausible cuts to public investment in cash terms that were never likely to materialise. And, despite the uplift, net public investment as a share of GDP remains at only 2.7 per cent, lower than in many other advanced economies.
The fiscal rules ？ to which the Chancellor reaffirmed her commitment ？ are still acting as a straitjacket on public investment. Worse still, given the small amount of headroom at the time of the Spring Statement, increases in spending announced since then, and the general background of global uncertainty, it is now almost inevitable that she will have to raise taxes in the Autumn Budget.
We welcome the increased investment in the National Health Service, defence, housing and transport infrastructure, particularly as it should help boost economic growth in some of the less prosperous regions of the United Kingdom such as the West Midlands, Wales and the North-East. But we think it is still not enough.
The ？113 billion increase in public investment over the parliament is a welcome commitment given historically low levels of UK government capital spending as a share of GDP. However, the headline figure is flattering as it is measured against the backdrop of the March 2024 plans, which pencilled in implausible cuts to public investment in cash terms that were never likely to materialise. And, despite the uplift, net public investment as a share of GDP remains at only 2.7 per cent, lower than in many other advanced economies.
The fiscal rules ？ to which the Chancellor reaffirmed her commitment ？ are still acting as a straitjacket on public investment. Worse still, given the small amount of headroom at the time of the Spring Statement, increases in spending announced since then, and the general background of global uncertainty, it is now almost inevitable that she will have to raise taxes in the Autumn Budget.
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