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What If George W. Bush’s Social Security Reforms Had Passed?
Twenty years ago, in winter and spring 2005, President George W. Bush embarked on a nationwide tour to promote his plans for Social Security reform, which included slowing the growth of benefits for middle- and high-earning individuals and establishing voluntary personal accounts in which workers could invest part of their payroll taxes. Bush’s changes to traditional Social Security benefits, termed “progressive price indexing,” would have addressed about two-thirds of the program’s long-term funding gap. By summer 2005, however, his efforts had fallen short; his plan never received a vote in Congress. But what if Congress had enacted Bush’s plan for Social Security? I model total Social Security benefits for individuals retiring in 2025, incorporating Bush’s progressive benefit changes and personal account balances based on investment market returns. Workers with very low, low, and middle earnings would have received total Social Security benefits 3-8 percent above those scheduled in current law, while high-earning employees and those earning the maximum taxable wage and above would have received benefits 2？4 percent below scheduled levels.
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