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Latest results from the Decision Maker Panel survey - 2025 Q2
During the first half of 2025, the US and some of its trading partners have announced significant changes to tariff policies, and there remains considerable uncertainty about the evolution of global trade policies over coming quarters. The expected impact of these changes on UK activity and inflation is discussed in Box C of the May 2025 Monetary Policy Report. The latest Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey complements that analysis by asking respondents a set of bespoke questions about the impact of tariff changes and uncertainty about trade policy.
To help evaluate the potential effects, firms in the DMP were asked about their trade exposure to the US and about US trade policy as a source of uncertainty for their business. Firms were also asked to estimate the effects of changes in US trade policy on their year-ahead sales, prices, and investment. Although a majority of firms expect no impact, some expect weaker demand, lower investment and lower UK prices. This analysis helps inform the Monetary Policy Committee about how external trade shocks are filtering through the UK economy.
To help evaluate the potential effects, firms in the DMP were asked about their trade exposure to the US and about US trade policy as a source of uncertainty for their business. Firms were also asked to estimate the effects of changes in US trade policy on their year-ahead sales, prices, and investment. Although a majority of firms expect no impact, some expect weaker demand, lower investment and lower UK prices. This analysis helps inform the Monetary Policy Committee about how external trade shocks are filtering through the UK economy.
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