국제무역
Inflation to Remain Above 3 per cent in 2025
Today’s ONS numbers indicate that annual inflation remains elevated at 3.4 per cent in May.
Services inflation recorded 4.6 per cent in May driven by strong pay growth, keeping core inflation elevated at 3.5 per cent.
Nevertheless, our underlying inflation measure (which excludes 5 per cent of the highest and lowest price changes to eliminate volatility) recorded 1.8 per cent. This figure remaining low is a positive indication, suggesting that headline inflation figure is being driven by large price increases in a few sectors, with inflation rates broadly falling for most items.
Inflation is forecasted to remain above 3 per cent target throughout 2025 given the rise in public spending and persistent wage growth.
We expect the Bank of England to keep rates on hold this Thursday and to cut interest rates just one further time this year.
Services inflation recorded 4.6 per cent in May driven by strong pay growth, keeping core inflation elevated at 3.5 per cent.
Nevertheless, our underlying inflation measure (which excludes 5 per cent of the highest and lowest price changes to eliminate volatility) recorded 1.8 per cent. This figure remaining low is a positive indication, suggesting that headline inflation figure is being driven by large price increases in a few sectors, with inflation rates broadly falling for most items.
Inflation is forecasted to remain above 3 per cent target throughout 2025 given the rise in public spending and persistent wage growth.
We expect the Bank of England to keep rates on hold this Thursday and to cut interest rates just one further time this year.
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