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The European Fiscal Board assesses the appropriate fiscal stance for the euro area in 2026
EFB: Fiscal restraint is appropriate, excluding defence spending: The European Fiscal Board (EFB) today issued its assessment of the appropriate fiscal stance for the euro area in 2026. There is exceptional geopolitical uncertainty and moderate yet resilient economic growth in the euro area. Against this backdrop, the EFB calls for fiscal restraint - excluding defence. Member States should use the flexibility under EU fiscal rules solely for bolstering defence capabilities.
In its new report, the EFB stresses that, while the euro area is expected to see modest GDP growth and resilient labour markets in 2026, one needs to keep a careful eye on debt sustainability risks. The recently introduced ReArm Europe initiative gives grounds to a sizeable, albeit temporary, fiscal expansion through national escape clauses aimed to respond to urgent political priorities. The possible fiscal expansion comes on top of a still significant level of fiscal support. Many countries kept their structural budget deficits above pre-Covid averages and RRF grants prop up demand. To safeguard the credibility of national public finances, the EFB advises countries resorting to the escape clause to present robust medium-term plans outlining how they will sustainably finance (with a conmensurate non-defense fiscal adjustment) higher defence outlays.
In its new report, the EFB stresses that, while the euro area is expected to see modest GDP growth and resilient labour markets in 2026, one needs to keep a careful eye on debt sustainability risks. The recently introduced ReArm Europe initiative gives grounds to a sizeable, albeit temporary, fiscal expansion through national escape clauses aimed to respond to urgent political priorities. The possible fiscal expansion comes on top of a still significant level of fiscal support. Many countries kept their structural budget deficits above pre-Covid averages and RRF grants prop up demand. To safeguard the credibility of national public finances, the EFB advises countries resorting to the escape clause to present robust medium-term plans outlining how they will sustainably finance (with a conmensurate non-defense fiscal adjustment) higher defence outlays.
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