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China’s Continental Conundrum: Nuclear Geopolitics and American Strategy in the Western Pacific
China has grand ambitions to dominate the western Pacific in the first stage of its broader campaign to displace the United States as the world’s preeminent power.
But China is acutely aware that an imposing geographic predicament blocks its campaign to remake the world: As a continental revisionist, Beijing has galvanized a web of US-led coalitions along its seaboard that seek to ensure that Chinese brute force does not overturn the regional status quo.
China has therefore undertaken a vast nuclear force buildup to undermine US security guarantees, “decouple” the US from Asia-Pacific allies, and shed China’s continental isolation without provoking a cataclysmic great-power war that jeopardizes its global ambitions.
The US should thus recognize that an overt Chinese military offensive constitutes just one possible scenario in a much broader spectrum of risk; that is, China’s growing nuclear force will empower its long-running gray-zone campaign to break the US alliance system short of great-power warfare.
The US requires an alliance-binding strategy, exploiting its competitive advantages, to counter China’s “short-of-war” coercion and ensure that its allies do not drift into neutrality or a Sino-centric orbit.
But China is acutely aware that an imposing geographic predicament blocks its campaign to remake the world: As a continental revisionist, Beijing has galvanized a web of US-led coalitions along its seaboard that seek to ensure that Chinese brute force does not overturn the regional status quo.
China has therefore undertaken a vast nuclear force buildup to undermine US security guarantees, “decouple” the US from Asia-Pacific allies, and shed China’s continental isolation without provoking a cataclysmic great-power war that jeopardizes its global ambitions.
The US should thus recognize that an overt Chinese military offensive constitutes just one possible scenario in a much broader spectrum of risk; that is, China’s growing nuclear force will empower its long-running gray-zone campaign to break the US alliance system short of great-power warfare.
The US requires an alliance-binding strategy, exploiting its competitive advantages, to counter China’s “short-of-war” coercion and ensure that its allies do not drift into neutrality or a Sino-centric orbit.
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