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AEI Housing Market Indicators, June 2025
The median purchase rate remained at 6.625% in Week 26, 2025. Purchase rate lock volume in week 26, 2025 was down 24% from the same week in 2019, and up 2% YoY.
May 2025’s preliminary YoY HPA was 2.5%, the second lowest May level of the series, and down from 3.2% a month ago and 5.4% in May 2024.
YoY HPA is projected to increase to 2.6% in June 2025 and 2.4% in July 2025. The relatively strong seller’s market continued in May 2025, with months’ remaining supply falling by 0.3 months from April 2025 to 3.7 months (not seasonally-adjusted). Since late-2023, YoY HPA for Florida condos has fallen behind, with Florida YoY HPA at -9% for condos and -2% for SFDs, compared to National YoY HPA at -1% and 3%, respectively.
Recent studies estimate that the national housing shortage ranges from 3.8 to 8.2 million homes. Assuming a 5.8 million homes shortage (midpoint estimate) for the 48 contiguous states, 2 million are attributable directly to California (1.4 million) plus the other 10 blast zone states (0.6 million).
In 1993, the average debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for FHA purchase loans was 34%, when mortgage rates averaged 7-8%. Today, the average DTI has risen to 46%, while rates hover below 7%. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s 2014 Qualified Mortgage (QM) Rule capped debt payments at 43% of income, but it was undermined by the QM patch. As a result of higher GSE DTI limits, DTI distributions have been shifting up for both FHA and GSE, while bunching at their respective DTI maxima of 50% for GSE loans and 57% for FHA loans. Increasing DTIs have helped fuel home price appreciation and leave little room for saving or unexpected expenses.
The AEI Carpenter Index combines both local wages and home prices into an affordability measure for blue-collar employees.
In 74 of the 100 largest metros, most entry-level or starter homes were not affordable for the average carpenter household in 2024. In 2012, this was the case for just 21 of those 100 metros.
May 2025’s preliminary YoY HPA was 2.5%, the second lowest May level of the series, and down from 3.2% a month ago and 5.4% in May 2024.
YoY HPA is projected to increase to 2.6% in June 2025 and 2.4% in July 2025. The relatively strong seller’s market continued in May 2025, with months’ remaining supply falling by 0.3 months from April 2025 to 3.7 months (not seasonally-adjusted). Since late-2023, YoY HPA for Florida condos has fallen behind, with Florida YoY HPA at -9% for condos and -2% for SFDs, compared to National YoY HPA at -1% and 3%, respectively.
Recent studies estimate that the national housing shortage ranges from 3.8 to 8.2 million homes. Assuming a 5.8 million homes shortage (midpoint estimate) for the 48 contiguous states, 2 million are attributable directly to California (1.4 million) plus the other 10 blast zone states (0.6 million).
In 1993, the average debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for FHA purchase loans was 34%, when mortgage rates averaged 7-8%. Today, the average DTI has risen to 46%, while rates hover below 7%. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s 2014 Qualified Mortgage (QM) Rule capped debt payments at 43% of income, but it was undermined by the QM patch. As a result of higher GSE DTI limits, DTI distributions have been shifting up for both FHA and GSE, while bunching at their respective DTI maxima of 50% for GSE loans and 57% for FHA loans. Increasing DTIs have helped fuel home price appreciation and leave little room for saving or unexpected expenses.
The AEI Carpenter Index combines both local wages and home prices into an affordability measure for blue-collar employees.
In 74 of the 100 largest metros, most entry-level or starter homes were not affordable for the average carpenter household in 2024. In 2012, this was the case for just 21 of those 100 metros.
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