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A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area
This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in structural factors and examines the implications for the inflation environment the ECB is likely to face. It also draws conclusions regarding the enhancements that need to be made to the existing analytical toolkit and inflation forecasting.
The starting point for the report is the outcome of the monetary policy strategy review (MPSR) 2020？21. The review included detailed analyses of the economic and inflation environment in the euro area, inflation measurement focusing on the inclusion of owner-occupied housing in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the inflation buffer, inflation expectations and the influence of structural drivers such as climate change, globalisation, digitalisation and demographic shifts.
While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation and interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound, the inflation environment changed rapidly after the MPSR 2020？21. Inflation hit record highs amid a series of unprecedented shocks linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There were also notable shifts in the structural factors shaping the economic and inflation environment. One of the most significant changes has been the evolving global geopolitical and geo-economic landscape, marked by increased tensions and a shift towards more protectionist and interventionist policies. In addition, the effects of climate change have accelerated, with rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. At the same time, efforts to spur a green transition have produced results. Digitalisation has reached a new phase, with the emergence of generative artificial intelligence models. Despite re
The starting point for the report is the outcome of the monetary policy strategy review (MPSR) 2020？21. The review included detailed analyses of the economic and inflation environment in the euro area, inflation measurement focusing on the inclusion of owner-occupied housing in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the inflation buffer, inflation expectations and the influence of structural drivers such as climate change, globalisation, digitalisation and demographic shifts.
While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation and interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound, the inflation environment changed rapidly after the MPSR 2020？21. Inflation hit record highs amid a series of unprecedented shocks linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There were also notable shifts in the structural factors shaping the economic and inflation environment. One of the most significant changes has been the evolving global geopolitical and geo-economic landscape, marked by increased tensions and a shift towards more protectionist and interventionist policies. In addition, the effects of climate change have accelerated, with rising global temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. At the same time, efforts to spur a green transition have produced results. Digitalisation has reached a new phase, with the emergence of generative artificial intelligence models. Despite re
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