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Weak Momentum and Tough Fiscal Choices - NIESR
Monthly GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in May, following a contraction of 0.3 per cent in April, mainly caused by a significant decline in the production and construction sectors.
Recent indicators suggest the growth outlook remains fragile, with momentum uneven across sectors. Persistent falls in hiring and subdued investment point to ongoing caution among households and businesses.
Based on the latest survey data and business sentiment, we continue to project GDP growth of 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2025. However, fragile demand conditions and persistently weak private investment are likely to limit the strength of growth this year.
The Chancellor’s fiscal headroom remains limited by historically high levels of public borrowing and debt. Her spending plans now hinge heavily on reviving economic growth, underscoring the urgent need for credible reform to stimulate business investment.
Recent indicators suggest the growth outlook remains fragile, with momentum uneven across sectors. Persistent falls in hiring and subdued investment point to ongoing caution among households and businesses.
Based on the latest survey data and business sentiment, we continue to project GDP growth of 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2025. However, fragile demand conditions and persistently weak private investment are likely to limit the strength of growth this year.
The Chancellor’s fiscal headroom remains limited by historically high levels of public borrowing and debt. Her spending plans now hinge heavily on reviving economic growth, underscoring the urgent need for credible reform to stimulate business investment.
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