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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034
The OECD？FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 provides a comprehensive assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels. Jointly produced by the OECD and FAO, in collaboration with their Members and international commodity organisations, the Outlook serves as a forward-looking reference to support evidence-based policy planning. This 21st edition examines the evolving landscape of global agriculture in the face of economic, political and environmental challenges.
Total consumption of agricultural and fish commodities is projected to grow by 13% from current levels by 2034 in constant prices. Nearly all the increase is expected to occur in low- and middle-income countries, reflecting expanding and increasingly affluent populations in these regions. However, while half of the consumption growth in middle-income countries is attributed to per-capita increases, three quarters of the growth in low-income countries is based on population growth.
Rising disposable incomes and urbanisation, particularly in middle-income countries, are expected to lead to shifts in dietary patterns toward more diverse and nutritious foods, including livestock and fish products. In lower-middle-income countries, a more pronounced 25% growth will bring the average daily per capita intake of nutrient-rich food in these regions to 364 kcal, surpassing the 300 kcal included in the Healthy Diet Basket used by the FAO to compute the cost and affordability of a healthy diet. Despite significant progress, many individuals in lower-middle-income countries will continue to face challenges in accessing adequate nutrition, putting the achievement of the SDG target of improved global nutrition by 2030 at risk. In low-income countries, the situation is more severe, as average daily per capita intake of nutrient-rich animal foods is expected to remain at 143 kcal, just below half the calories identified in the Healthy Diet Basket.
Total consumption of agricultural and fish commodities is projected to grow by 13% from current levels by 2034 in constant prices. Nearly all the increase is expected to occur in low- and middle-income countries, reflecting expanding and increasingly affluent populations in these regions. However, while half of the consumption growth in middle-income countries is attributed to per-capita increases, three quarters of the growth in low-income countries is based on population growth.
Rising disposable incomes and urbanisation, particularly in middle-income countries, are expected to lead to shifts in dietary patterns toward more diverse and nutritious foods, including livestock and fish products. In lower-middle-income countries, a more pronounced 25% growth will bring the average daily per capita intake of nutrient-rich food in these regions to 364 kcal, surpassing the 300 kcal included in the Healthy Diet Basket used by the FAO to compute the cost and affordability of a healthy diet. Despite significant progress, many individuals in lower-middle-income countries will continue to face challenges in accessing adequate nutrition, putting the achievement of the SDG target of improved global nutrition by 2030 at risk. In low-income countries, the situation is more severe, as average daily per capita intake of nutrient-rich animal foods is expected to remain at 143 kcal, just below half the calories identified in the Healthy Diet Basket.
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