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AEI Housing Market Indicators, July 2025
- Recent Movements in Rates and Demand.
· The median purchase rate remained at 6.625% in Week 30, 2025.
· Purchase rate lock volume in week 30, 2025 was down 30% from the same week in 2019, and down 4% YoY.
- Home Price Appreciation (HPA) and Month’s Supply Trends Through June 2025.
· June 2025’s preliminary YoY HPA was 2.4%, the lowest June level of the series, and down from 2.7% a month ago and 4.7% in June 2024.
· YoY HPA is projected to decrease to 1.8% in July 2025 and 1.1% in the first 3 weeks of August 2025.
· The relatively strong seller’s market continued in June 2025, with months’ remaining supply staying unchanged from May 2025 at 3.9 months (not seasonally-adjusted).
· Since late-2023, YoY HPA for Florida condos has fallen behind, with Florida YoY HPA at -8.6% for condos and -2.7% for SFDs, compared to National YoY HPA at -1.2% and 2.6%, respectively.
- Visualizing metro-level HPAs and their month’s supply compared to a year ago.
· Across the top 60 metros, months’ supply is generally higher than 1 ago, while YoY HPA is lower, with a North/South split increasingly evident.
· 48 of the top 60 metros have more supply than a year ago, while 44 of the 55 metros* with reported HPA in June 2025 have a YoY HPA rate that fell from a year ago.
· With the exception of Minneapolis, MN and Washington, D.C., all major metros in the Midwest and Northeast have experienced cumulative HPA since their 2022 peaks greater than the national average.
· 50 of 55 top metros by home sales experienced a seller’s market (months’ supply < 7 mo.) of varying intensities in June 2025.
- HUD reverses some PAVE policies.
· Earlier this month, HUD announced the termination of PAVE’s policies related to Reconsideration of Value (ROV) and Appraisal Fair Housing Compliance. The release cited our work as the justification for this reversal.
· Contrary to PAVE’s and others’ claims, our own more rigorous analysis shows that racial gaps in home appraisals, mortgage de
· The median purchase rate remained at 6.625% in Week 30, 2025.
· Purchase rate lock volume in week 30, 2025 was down 30% from the same week in 2019, and down 4% YoY.
- Home Price Appreciation (HPA) and Month’s Supply Trends Through June 2025.
· June 2025’s preliminary YoY HPA was 2.4%, the lowest June level of the series, and down from 2.7% a month ago and 4.7% in June 2024.
· YoY HPA is projected to decrease to 1.8% in July 2025 and 1.1% in the first 3 weeks of August 2025.
· The relatively strong seller’s market continued in June 2025, with months’ remaining supply staying unchanged from May 2025 at 3.9 months (not seasonally-adjusted).
· Since late-2023, YoY HPA for Florida condos has fallen behind, with Florida YoY HPA at -8.6% for condos and -2.7% for SFDs, compared to National YoY HPA at -1.2% and 2.6%, respectively.
- Visualizing metro-level HPAs and their month’s supply compared to a year ago.
· Across the top 60 metros, months’ supply is generally higher than 1 ago, while YoY HPA is lower, with a North/South split increasingly evident.
· 48 of the top 60 metros have more supply than a year ago, while 44 of the 55 metros* with reported HPA in June 2025 have a YoY HPA rate that fell from a year ago.
· With the exception of Minneapolis, MN and Washington, D.C., all major metros in the Midwest and Northeast have experienced cumulative HPA since their 2022 peaks greater than the national average.
· 50 of 55 top metros by home sales experienced a seller’s market (months’ supply < 7 mo.) of varying intensities in June 2025.
- HUD reverses some PAVE policies.
· Earlier this month, HUD announced the termination of PAVE’s policies related to Reconsideration of Value (ROV) and Appraisal Fair Housing Compliance. The release cited our work as the justification for this reversal.
· Contrary to PAVE’s and others’ claims, our own more rigorous analysis shows that racial gaps in home appraisals, mortgage de
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