최신자료
Learning with Their Feet: Student Enrollment Trends in Postsecondary Education by College Quality
College enrollment reached a peak in the aftermath of the Great Recession but has declined since then. While the college enrollment decline is often perceived as a crisis, this report demonstrates that the lowest-quality colleges―as measured by a composite index of student outcomes including loan repayment rates, graduation rates, and students’ median earnings after enrollment―witnessed the largest drops in enrollment. High-quality colleges, by contrast, saw their enrollment increase.
Specifically, the worst fifth of colleges as measured by student outcomes experienced a 47 percent drop in undergraduate enrollment between 2010 and 2023. Almost all the decline in college enrollment since 2010 is attributable to institutions in the bottom two quintiles of college quality. High-quality colleges saw enrollment increase by 8 percent over the same period. Many state flagship institutions in the top echelon of quality increased their enrollments by 20 percent or more.
In addition to choosing higher-quality colleges, today’s college students are choosing majors with a higher return on investment. Colleges are conferring more bachelor’s degrees in high-wage fields of study such as engineering, computer science, and nursing, while low-wage majors such as history, English, and sociology have seen student interest wane. Some technical trades, especially precision metalworking, have also enrolled more students.
The findings carry two broad implications. First, the decline in college enrollment may not be the crisis some believe, as the drop is occurring mostly at low-quality institutions, which students may not be better off for having attended. Second, student choice is a more powerful driver of trends in higher education than observers often appreciate; students seem to have some sense of variation in college quality and make their enrollment decisions accordingly.
Specifically, the worst fifth of colleges as measured by student outcomes experienced a 47 percent drop in undergraduate enrollment between 2010 and 2023. Almost all the decline in college enrollment since 2010 is attributable to institutions in the bottom two quintiles of college quality. High-quality colleges saw enrollment increase by 8 percent over the same period. Many state flagship institutions in the top echelon of quality increased their enrollments by 20 percent or more.
In addition to choosing higher-quality colleges, today’s college students are choosing majors with a higher return on investment. Colleges are conferring more bachelor’s degrees in high-wage fields of study such as engineering, computer science, and nursing, while low-wage majors such as history, English, and sociology have seen student interest wane. Some technical trades, especially precision metalworking, have also enrolled more students.
The findings carry two broad implications. First, the decline in college enrollment may not be the crisis some believe, as the drop is occurring mostly at low-quality institutions, which students may not be better off for having attended. Second, student choice is a more powerful driver of trends in higher education than observers often appreciate; students seem to have some sense of variation in college quality and make their enrollment decisions accordingly.
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