The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic affected education through school
closures and disruptive shocks to household income, health, and economic activity.
Using data from a survey carried out in 2024 in 108 rural villages as a continuation of the
Learning and Educational Achievement in Pakistan Schools (LEAPS) panel data project
in Punjab, Pakistan, we measure these shocks and their effects on the learning
outcomes of primary school students. Although the duration of school closures had a
minimal direct impact, COVID-19-induced income shocks significantly reduced student
learning, by 0.06 SD (standard deviation), disproportionately affecting public school
students (0.08 SD) compared to a minimal effect on private school students.
Consequently, the pandemic widened the pre-existing private?public learning inequality
in more impacted areas. The study also finds that mitigation action by schools during
closures in general did not explain the variation in learning outcomes. The impact of the
COVID-19-induced shock was fairly modest in magnitude compared to the
already-existing learning variation owing to other school and student characteristics that
normally predict educational outcomes, such as gender, school type, and maternal
education. We also document long-term trends using the village panel aspect of the
LEAPS project. Despite the significant disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,
student performance in all subgroups by gender and school type showed improvement in
the period 2011?2024 at least as much as in the previous period of 2004?2011. The
findings collectively suggest there has been a steady improvement in education levels in
rural Pakistani villages and that COVID-19 may have had only a small effect, or the
negative impact disappeared by 2 years after school reopening.