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Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks
The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in the United States, has offset some of the drag from these factors for now. Still, growth is expected to slow across most major economies in 2026.
Real global GDP is projected to rise 3.1 percent in 2025 and 2.9 percent in 2026 (see figure below), down from 3.3 percent last year, according to an analysis presented at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Fall 2025 Global Economic Prospects event.
Real global GDP is projected to rise 3.1 percent in 2025 and 2.9 percent in 2026 (see figure below), down from 3.3 percent last year, according to an analysis presented at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Fall 2025 Global Economic Prospects event.
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