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Need Not Be a Surprise: Early-Warning Systems for Chronic Absenteeism
AEI
2025.10.16
The COVID-19 pandemic drove up chronic absenteeism in nearly every school and student demographic, making district leaders’ task of targeting resources difficult.

We build and present early-warning systems that can predict chronic absenteeism using the data that districts already routinely collect.

These early-warning systems make accurate predictions before and after the pandemic and across states.

Similar early-warning systems are within reach of most districts and could serve as a valuable guide for targeting interventions to bring down absenteeism.