전망·동향
Inflation Lower Than Anticipated in September
Today’s ONS numbers indicate that annual CPI inflation recorded 3.8 per cent in September, unchanged from August and lower than anticipated. We forecast inflation to slowly fall but remain above 3 per cent over the next 6 months. While inflation for most items is broadly moderate, some sectors are experiencing significant price pressures due to increases in administered prices, as well as adverse weather conditions which are impacting food inflation. Given that, we think the MPC will remain cautious and pause interest rate cuts at least until February to avoid stirring up inflationary pressures again.
“Today’s ONS figures show that annual CPI inflation recorded 3.8% in September 2025, unchanged from August and lower than anticipated. We expect inflation to remain above 3% through the first quarter of 2026 before gradually falling towards the 2% target. Elevated inflation this year has been driven by higher housing costs, food price pressures, and persistently strong wage growth. Given that, we think the Bank of England will remain cautious and pause interest rate cuts at least until February to avoid stirring up inflationary pressures again”.
“Today’s ONS figures show that annual CPI inflation recorded 3.8% in September 2025, unchanged from August and lower than anticipated. We expect inflation to remain above 3% through the first quarter of 2026 before gradually falling towards the 2% target. Elevated inflation this year has been driven by higher housing costs, food price pressures, and persistently strong wage growth. Given that, we think the Bank of England will remain cautious and pause interest rate cuts at least until February to avoid stirring up inflationary pressures again”.
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