최신자료
Economic Outlook: Stability First
The Chancellor should use the forthcoming Autumn Budget to create a bigger fiscal buffer and set debt on a clearly declining path. We believe the aim should be to build a buffer of at least 30 billion on top of the OBR’s estimated gap, which insures against future shocks and avoids a cycle of repeated fiscal resets. Greater stability would help to lower policy uncertainty, supporting both business investment and consumer confidence. This would likely kickstart the virtuous feedback loop that the UK economy so badly needs.The real challenge goes beyond the fiscal rule. The key issue is debt sustainability. With the real interest rate now exceeding the growth rate of the economy, stabilising the debt-to-GDP ratio requires persistent primary surpluses of around 1 per cent of GDP, and larger surpluses to bring debt down. Without such an adjustment, debt dynamics act as a ratchet: each new shock lifts the ratio higher, and without determined consolidation, it never falls back.Five years on from the pandemic, this is the moment to start the process of bringing the debt ratio down. If we don’t, we risk losing the capacity to respond to future crises, limiting our ability to invest, and leaving the economy more exposed to inflation and to market pressures. This Budget must be about more than meeting a set of rules. It must be about putting stability first restoring resilience and rebuilding confidence in the UK’s public finance.Against this backdrop, we now forecast GDP growth of 1.5 per cent in 2025 slightly above the estimated long-run trend of 1.25 per cent before easing back to trend in 2026 and 2027. We expect inflation to fall to 2.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 and to reach the 2 per cent target by the third quarter of next year. We believe the MPC will keep rates on hold on Thursday, with a 25-basis-point rate cut in February 2026, followed by a further cut to 3.5 per cent - our estimate of the natural nominal interest rate (r*) - later in the year.
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