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Market Participants Survey results - November 2025
OverviewThis survey forms part of the Bank’s quantitative market intelligence gathering. It is formulated by Bank of England staff, and enhances policymakers’ understanding of market expectations. The questions involve topics that are widely discussed in the public domain, and never presume any particular policy action. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are not involved in the survey’s design.Survey respondents originate from a broad set of market participant firms, selected by the Bank based on a number of criteria, including: (i) relevant market activity in UK rates or money markets; (ii) expertise in UK rates markets and/or UK monetary policy; (iii) willingness to participate regularly in the survey and in the Bank’s market intelligence activity; and (iv) membership of one of the Bank’s external market committees.Please contact MarketParticipantsSurvey@bankofengland.co.uk for queries or for further information.Survey resultsThe survey was open from 2224 October 2025 with responses being received from 88 market participants. For most questions, median responses across participants, along with the 25th and 75th percentiles, are reported.footnote [1] For questions that ask respondents to weight different factors or assign probabilities to specific outcomes, the mean weightings or probabilities are reported. For questions that ask respondents to select one option from a given set of possibilities the respondent count against each option is reported.Question 1: Expectations for Bank Rate1a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for Bank Rate after the following MPC meetings. (a)25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responses6 November 2025 MPC3.944.004.008818 December 2025 MPC3.753.754.00885 February 2026 MPC3.503.753.758819 March 2026 MPC3.503.503.758730 April 2026 MPC3.253.503.508718 June 2026 MPC3.253.503.508730 July 2026 MPC3.003.253.508617 September 2026 MPC3.003.253.5086One year ahead (November 2026 MPC)3.003.253.5087End-2026 Q43.003.253.5085End-2027 Q13.003.253.3883End-2027 Q23.003.253.5083Two years ahead (November 2027)3.003.253.5083Three years ahead (November 2028)3.003.253.5082Five years ahead (November 2030)3.003.253.5080Footnotes(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to two decimal places. 1b) And where do you see the level of Bank Rate at which monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary (often referred to as the neutral, natural or equilibrium rate)? (a)25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responses3.003.003.5088Footnotes(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to two decimal places. 1ci) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 6 November 2025 meeting. (a)Mean probability (%)3.50%0.33.75%33.84.00%65.74.25%0.2Footnotes(a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <2.75% and >5.25% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were close to or at zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 87 respondents answered this question. 1cii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 18 December 2025 meeting. (a)Mean probability (%)3.25%0.13.50%6.33.75%54.14.00%39.14.25%0.3Footnotes(a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <2.75% and >5.25% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were close to or at zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 87 respondents answered this question. 1ciii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 5 February 2026 meeting. (a)Mean probability (%)3.00%1.03.25%5.03.50%31.93.75%48.44.00%13.34.25%0.3Footnotes(a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <2.75% and >5.25% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were close to or at zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 87 respondents answered this question. 1d) Do you see the risks around the level of your most likely trough in Bank Rate as:CountSkewed more to the upside22Broadly balanced42Skewed more to the downside231e) The August Monetary Policy Report noted that ‘based on the Government’s plans set out in Spring Statement 2025, the overall stance of fiscal policy is tightening materially over the MPC’s forecast period’. Taking the policies set out in the Spring Statement as given, what impact have your expectations for the outcome of the 2025 Autumn Budget had on your most likely expectations for Bank Rate at the following points(a)End-2025End-2026+50 basis points 12+25 basis points430 basis points6026-25 basis points1942-50 basis points313<-50 basis points01Footnotes(a) In the question provided to respondents, the options spanned <-50 basis points and >+50 basis points at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the respondent count was zero. Question 2: Macroeconomic outlook2a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the annual rate of CPI inflation conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) at each of the following time horizons. (a)25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responsesEnd-2025 Q43.43.63.781End-2026 Q12.93.23.381End-2026 Q22.42.63.080End-2026 Q32.32.52.879One year ahead2.22.32.781Two years ahead2.02.12.378Three years ahead2.02.02.277Five years ahead2.02.02.375Footnotes(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to one decimal place. 2bi) Please assign probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation three years ahead. (a)Mean probability (%)<=1.00%2.51.01%1.40%3.81.41%1.80%10.31.81%2.20%36.72.21%2.60%24.12.61%3.00%13.3>3.00%9.3Footnotes(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to one decimal place. 76 respondents answered this question. 2bii) Please assign probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation on average from 5 years ahead to 10 years ahead (ie analogous to the five-year, five-year forward rate). (a)Mean probability (%)<=1.00%1.71.01%1.40%3.61.41%1.80%10.31.81%2.20%37.02.21%2.60%24.62.61%3.00%13.9>3.00%8.9Footnotes(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to one decimal place. 72 respondents answered this question. 2c) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the annual (calendar year) rate of UK GDP growth conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) at each of the following time horizons. (a)25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responses2025 GDP growth1.201.301.40822026 GDP growth1.001.201.30822027 GDP growth1.201.401.5080Long run (potential)1.251.501.5076Footnotes(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to two decimal places. 2d) The September MPC minutes noted that a key policy question had been ‘the balance between upside risks from inflation persistence and downside risks to demand and, in turn, inflation’. Previously, the MPC had outlined two illustrative scenarios:Scenario 1: there could be weaker supply and more persistence in domestic wages and prices, including from second-round effects related to the near-term increase in CPI inflation.Scenario 2: inflationary pressures could ease more quickly owing to greater or longer-lasting weakness in demand relative to supply.According to your view of the UK macroeconomic outlook, which of the following best characterises how these illustrative scenarios are unfolding?CountOn balance, Scenario 1 (inflation persistence) is playing out more than Scenario 2 (weakness in demand)19Neither scenario is definitively playing out more than the other32On balance, Scenario 2 (weakness in demand) is playing out more than Scenario 1 (inflation persistence)35Question 3: Expectations for balance sheet and gilt yields3a) Please provide the annual reduction in the stock of gilts held in the Asset Purchase Facility, comprising both maturing gilts and gilt sales in initial purchase proceeds terms, that you see as most likely over the following annual review cycles ( billions). (a)25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responsesOctober 2026September 202731506072October 2027September 202828455071October 2028September 202934355069October 2029September 203029295068Footnotes(a) Numbers in the above table are rounded to the nearest billion. 3bi) What do you expect the DMO’s actual annual gilt issuance to be in the 202526 financial year ( billions)25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responses202526300305310673bii) And what about in the 202627 financial year ( billions)?25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responses202627265280300633c) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of the 10-year gilt yield at the following points in the future.25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responsesEnd-December 20254.254.404.5078End-June 20264.004.204.4078End-December 20263.754.004.3077Question 4: Expectations for exchange rates4a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of GBPUSD one year ahead.25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responses1.30001.34001.3600744b) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of EURGBP one year ahead.25th percentile50th percentile75th percentileNumber of responses0.86000.87290.893274 Throughout, the Xth percentile is calculated by ranking the survey responses in ascending order and reporting the response which is ranked in position k where k is (X/100)*(sample size -1) +1. For numeric answers, where k is not an integer (ie this position lies between two responses), the result is interpolated by applying the percentile proportional to the distance between them. Discontinuous answers, such as policy meeting dates, are not interpolated. Instead, the first response which covers at least X% of the sample is reported. Footnote [1] Throughout, the Xth percentile is calculated by ranking the survey responses in ascending order and reporting the response which is ranked in position k where k is (X/100)*(sample size -1) +1. For numeric answers, where k is not an integer (ie this position lies between two responses), the result is interpolated by applying the percentile proportional to the distance between them. Discontinuous answers, such as policy meeting dates, are not interpolated. Instead, the first response which covers at least X% of the sample is reported.
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