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Why Inflation Expectations Are Important to Policymakers
People’s expectations of future inflation will fundamentally affect their decisions, Martin said, noting that people contract in nominal terms (that is, without adjusting for inflation) but care about inflation’s effects. When you write a contract, take out a mortgage or agree on a salary, you want to have an estimate of the future value of that money. For instance, is a 7% rate on your mortgage high or low? Is a 2% raise from your employer a lot or a little? The answers would depend in part on what you expect inflation to be, he explained.
Policymakers need to take these expectations into account, Martin said, because people’s decisions will be different if they think inflation will be 2% than if they think it will be 4% or 10%, meaning the impact of policy will be different under those scenarios.
Inflation expectations matter to monetary policymakers because they reflect views of their credibility, Martin said. The Federal Reserve has an inflation target of 2%, based on the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. If someone says they expect inflation to be 2% 10 years from now, that suggests they trust the Fed to accomplish a rate of around 2% in that time, he explained. But a response of, say, 10% or even 3% or 4% would suggest they don’t trust the Fed will meet its target over that period.
Policymakers need to take these expectations into account, Martin said, because people’s decisions will be different if they think inflation will be 2% than if they think it will be 4% or 10%, meaning the impact of policy will be different under those scenarios.
Inflation expectations matter to monetary policymakers because they reflect views of their credibility, Martin said. The Federal Reserve has an inflation target of 2%, based on the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures. If someone says they expect inflation to be 2% 10 years from now, that suggests they trust the Fed to accomplish a rate of around 2% in that time, he explained. But a response of, say, 10% or even 3% or 4% would suggest they don’t trust the Fed will meet its target over that period.
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