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AEI National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index: October 2025
- Record Low HPA: Preliminary YoY HPA was 1.5% in October 2025 the lowest monthly rate since AEI began tracking in 2013.
- Near-Zero Growth Ahead: Nominal YoY HPA is projected to end 2025 between 0% and +1%, which would make 2025 the weakest calendar-year HPA performance since our series start in 2013.
- Regional Divergence Widens: The metro-level YoY HPA range spans 18.8 ppts, from -11.3% in Cape Coral to +7.5% in Greenville, up from 16.0 ppts in September. Every major metro in Florida and in or west of Texas posted price growth below the national average.
- Existing sales exceed 2024 and 2023 but remain weak overall: Existing home sales edged up in October, aided by slightly lower rates, but remain near historical lows helping keep moderate downward pressure on HPA.
- Market Softening in Many Metros: 53 of the 57 largest metros remained in seller’s market territory (<7 months of supply), but nearly half (29) already show negative YoY HPA. Metros with the highest supply (Cape Coral, North Port, Austin) all posted YoY HPA below 4%.
- Near-Zero Growth Ahead: Nominal YoY HPA is projected to end 2025 between 0% and +1%, which would make 2025 the weakest calendar-year HPA performance since our series start in 2013.
- Regional Divergence Widens: The metro-level YoY HPA range spans 18.8 ppts, from -11.3% in Cape Coral to +7.5% in Greenville, up from 16.0 ppts in September. Every major metro in Florida and in or west of Texas posted price growth below the national average.
- Existing sales exceed 2024 and 2023 but remain weak overall: Existing home sales edged up in October, aided by slightly lower rates, but remain near historical lows helping keep moderate downward pressure on HPA.
- Market Softening in Many Metros: 53 of the 57 largest metros remained in seller’s market territory (<7 months of supply), but nearly half (29) already show negative YoY HPA. Metros with the highest supply (Cape Coral, North Port, Austin) all posted YoY HPA below 4%.
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