A Prisoner’s Dilemma in the Race to Artificial General Intelligence | 국외연구자료

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Information and Education Center

최신자료

A Prisoner’s Dilemma in the Race to Artificial General Intelligence

RAND

2025.12.03

The purpose of this report is to represent the ongoing policy debate on the race to artificial general intelligence (AGI) in a mathematically neutral model that allows policymakers to compare the outcome of alternative strategies in international technology competition. The analysis assumes that outcomes are driven by a strategic choice of whether to accelerate the development of AGI based on the trade-off between the perceived benefits of securing a first-mover advantage and the perceived risks, such as developing an uncontrolled or unaligned AGI, misuse by non-experts to create new weapons of mass destruction, instability between great powers that escalates to conflict, and other threats to human survival, flourishing, and global security. Although the model does not capture the full complexity of present-day racing dynamics, it suggests that incentives will continue to be aligned with accelerated development until coordination mechanisms are designed that are grounded in a common knowledge of the global risks of advancing toward AGI. This report is intended for policymakers and general audiences who are interested in understanding these racing dynamics and geopolitical implications.

목록보기