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What happened in the last election of 2025, and what does it mean for the midterms?
In Tennessee’s special election, Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn focused her campaign on affordability. Her message resonated: The Democratic vote share increased in every county.
The Tennessee vote swing replicated strong movement toward the Democrats in other special Congressional elections this year, in Florida, Virginia, and Arizona.
In a +22 Trump district, Republican nominee Van Epps made what turned out to be a smart calculation: That embracing Trump would help him turn out the Republican base voters he needed to offset the way opposition to Trump was mobilizing Democrats.
The Tennessee vote swing replicated strong movement toward the Democrats in other special Congressional elections this year, in Florida, Virginia, and Arizona.
In a +22 Trump district, Republican nominee Van Epps made what turned out to be a smart calculation: That embracing Trump would help him turn out the Republican base voters he needed to offset the way opposition to Trump was mobilizing Democrats.
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