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Will the Supreme Court determine the fate of the Trump tariffs?
PIIE
2025.12.08
A decision by the Supreme Court on the legality of President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs could be delivered any day now. The president has warned that throwing out the tariffs would create an “economic and national security disaster” and that it might cost trillions of dollars to “unwind” the tariffs if they are invalidated, as demanded by the plaintiffs. What is the Court likely to do?

The justices, who heard oral arguments on November 5, are to decide what additional import duties, if any, the president can legally impose by virtue of declaring an emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. What and how the justices decide could have far-reaching consequences for the dividing lines between the powers of the executive branch and Congress. The Supreme Court could, of course, leave Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs in place, deferring to the executive branch’s invocation of its emergency powers. But here are six alternative possibilities.