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Are U.S. Treasuries Still “Convenient”?
The reduction in the convenience yield of U.S. Treasury securities, particularly for long-maturity spreads, has been notable. Specifically, the AAA-UST spread has decreased from 67 to 36 basis points. Additionally, the 10-year swap spread has shifted from 2 to -26 basis points, and the 18-month box spread has contracted from 34 to 9 basis points. These changes appear consistent with the current environment of elevated fiscal deficits and increased government debt. Such conditions typically reduce the convenience yield and contribute to higher long-term yields. For an analysis of U.S. Treasury yields, see our previous blog post.
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