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Generative AI, Productivity and the Future of Work
Since ChatGPT was released publicly in 2022, news reports have focused both on the promised benefits and on the potential risks to workers from generative AI. Generative AI, which encompasses large language models (LLMs), is a type of AI capable of creating text, images, video, audio, code and other media in response to questions and commands. (For a primer on AI, see this Page One Economics article.)
Some companies have dramatically restructured their workforce, implementing mass layoffs, in the expectation of dramatically higher productivity; so far, the results have been mixed. Yet it’s not only businesses looking to embrace the new technology. Nearly half of U.S. employees are using banned AI tools at work, according to one news report.
Still, how much time has actually been saved through the use of generative AI tools like ChatGPT, Office Copilot, Gemini and Claude? And what has been the possible impact on overall productivity? I spoke with Alexander Bick, a senior economic policy advisor at the St. Louis Fed, to gain insights into these questions.
Bick and two colleagues, Adam Blandin of Vanderbilt University and David Deming of Harvard University, have been tracking the spread of generative AI through an innovative nationwide online survey, the Real-Time Population Survey. Unlike other surveys, the RPS examines not just overall usage but also usage by occupations and by industry.
The economists were surprised to find in their initial study how quickly the technology was adopted relative to other earlier technologies. They found that in August 2024―less than two years after the introduction of this technology―nearly 40% of the U.S. population ages 18 to 64 used generative AI to some degree, both at work and at home. In comparison, the adoption rate was 20% for personal computers three years after their introduction.
Some companies have dramatically restructured their workforce, implementing mass layoffs, in the expectation of dramatically higher productivity; so far, the results have been mixed. Yet it’s not only businesses looking to embrace the new technology. Nearly half of U.S. employees are using banned AI tools at work, according to one news report.
Still, how much time has actually been saved through the use of generative AI tools like ChatGPT, Office Copilot, Gemini and Claude? And what has been the possible impact on overall productivity? I spoke with Alexander Bick, a senior economic policy advisor at the St. Louis Fed, to gain insights into these questions.
Bick and two colleagues, Adam Blandin of Vanderbilt University and David Deming of Harvard University, have been tracking the spread of generative AI through an innovative nationwide online survey, the Real-Time Population Survey. Unlike other surveys, the RPS examines not just overall usage but also usage by occupations and by industry.
The economists were surprised to find in their initial study how quickly the technology was adopted relative to other earlier technologies. They found that in August 2024―less than two years after the introduction of this technology―nearly 40% of the U.S. population ages 18 to 64 used generative AI to some degree, both at work and at home. In comparison, the adoption rate was 20% for personal computers three years after their introduction.
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